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National Intelligence Estimate � Al-qaeda Back Stronger Then Ever � Who�s Kidding Who???

The Intelligence apparatus of the United States is required to publish what is referred to as the National Intelligence Estimate. It is a distillation of the major intelligence issues facing the United States as seen through the eyes of some 17 different intelligence organizations. One of the purposes of the National Intelligence Estimate is to CYA. If something bad were to happen, at the very least the bureaucracy could then point back and say, see, it was in the Estimate.

This latest one is very special in that you must read between the lines to understand what it is saying. Some of the key concepts are �US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. �Main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially Al-Qaeda. Group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: as a safe haven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). We assess that..Al-Qaeda�s association with Al-Qaeda Iraq�s helps Al-Qaeda to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland (meaning United States) attacks.�

This is not what you said Two Years Ago, Mr. President!

In the last National Intelligence Estimate two years ago, Al-Qaeda was on the run, broken up, being smashed. There was supposedly a direct link between the war in Iraq and the lessened threat level presented by Al-Qaeda. This is why we say; you must read between the lines of the latest estimate. If things were so bad for Al-Qaeda just two years ago, how could they have to quote the document, �REGENERATED�? What were we doing, sleeping at the switch.

Let�s Look Back a Moment

1)We had Bin Laden trapped in Afghanistan after the 9/11 tragedy, absolutely trapped. Instead of finishing the man and his people with our own troops who were present and capable of doing the job, we paid the local trial leaders in American $100 dollar bills to do the job. Bin Laden paid them more, and escaped successfully with his underlings to the safety of the Pakistani mountains where he is today.

2)We have given President Musharraf over $10 billion in cold American currency to finish Bin Laden and he never got the job done. He constantly gives lip service to the task, but nothing happens. In fact, Musharraf cut a deal with the chieftains protecting Bin Laden to let them administer these provinces, and now the chiefs have not adhered to their side of the bargain.

3)President Bush has always stated that this country is safer because we went into Iraq. This latest National Intelligence Estimate does not agree with that assessment, although the intelligence agencies will not say so directly. The fact that Al-Qaeda has reconstituted itself and is bigger and stronger than ever clearly tells you that the resources, which have gone into Iraq, were a diversion from the real war on terrorism, which is Al-Qaeda.

For more on this topic, please see our expanded article on our website

Submitted by:

Richard Stoyeck

Richard Stoyeck�s background includes being a limited partner at Bear Stearns, Senior VP at Lehman Brothers, Kuhn Loeb, Arthur Andersen, and KPMG. Educated at Pace University, NYU, and Harvard University, today he runs Rockefeller Capital Partners and StocksAtBottom.com Value Investing at StocksAtBottom.com/ez.html


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